Loading [MathJax]/extensions/MathZoom.js
Uncertainties in the development of unconventional gas production in Europe | IEEE Conference Publication | IEEE Xplore

Uncertainties in the development of unconventional gas production in Europe


Abstract:

As increasing import dependency raises doubts about the future security of gas supply in Europe, indigenous production especially from unconventional resources emerges as...Show More

Abstract:

As increasing import dependency raises doubts about the future security of gas supply in Europe, indigenous production especially from unconventional resources emerges as a promising solution for this problem. However, the development of unconventional gas production in Europe is challenged by several uncertainties related to the technology, reserves, societal and political issues. For a better analysis of the development of unconventional gas, and for better decision support, these uncertainties should be clearly identified. This paper systematically identifies and categorizes the uncertainties challenging the European unconventional gas development, and highlights the causal relations between the uncertainties in order to enhance their understanding. The impacts of the uncertainties discussed in this study on the development can be investigated in detail in future scenario analysis or modeling studies.
Date of Conference: 10-12 May 2012
Date Added to IEEE Xplore: 02 August 2012
ISBN Information:

ISSN Information:

Conference Location: Florence, Italy

I. Introduction

As the global reserves are reallocated to satisfy the demand of economically growing countries [1] and the regional or national gas reserves decrease, the security of gas supply in Europe is threatened. In 2009, the share of gas in the total energy consumption of 27 EU members was recorded as 24%. Between 1999 and 2009, gas consumption increased by 9% while the production decreased by 25%, and this situation led import dependency to shift from 47.9% to 64.2% in the same decade [2]. This trend in the past is expected to continue, as the forecasts show an 18.7% increase in the demand and a 57% decrease in the EU production from 2008 to 2035 [1]. This growing consumption against falling production indicates an approaching threat for security of supply.

References

References is not available for this document.