Loading [MathJax]/extensions/MathZoom.js
Effects of Load Forecast Uncertainty on Bulk Electric System Reliability Evaluation | IEEE Journals & Magazine | IEEE Xplore

Effects of Load Forecast Uncertainty on Bulk Electric System Reliability Evaluation


Abstract:

Load forecast uncertainty is an important factor in long-range system planning and has been shown to have a significant impact on the calculated reliability indices in ge...Show More

Abstract:

Load forecast uncertainty is an important factor in long-range system planning and has been shown to have a significant impact on the calculated reliability indices in generating capacity studies. In general, a higher capacity reserve is required to satisfy a future uncertainty load than to serve a known load, at a specified level of reliability. Load forecast considerations are also important in composite generation and transmission system reliability studies, and their associated probability distributions. This paper examines the effects of load forecast uncertainty in bulk system reliability assessment incorporating changes in system composition, topology, load curtailment policies and bus load correlation levels.
Published in: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems ( Volume: 23, Issue: 2, May 2008)
Page(s): 418 - 425
Date of Publication: 22 April 2008

ISSN Information:


I. Introduction

The ability to accurately forecast the load is an important requirement in electric power system planning and operating. It is impossible, however, to exactly forecast the load at some future time and therefore some degree of load forecast uncertainty will always exist. This is particularly true in the case of long-range planning which looks into conditions extending over the next decade. Considerable work has been done on the incorporation of load forecast uncertainty in generating capacity adequacy evaluation [1]–[3] and in unit commitment risk assessment [4]. Load forecast uncertainty can have a significant effect on the calculated reliability indices in a generating capacity study and in general it requires a higher capacity reserve to satisfy a future uncertain load than it does to meet a future known load at a specified level of reliability [2]. Load forecast uncertainty considerations can be extended to incorporate the power demand variations at the individual load points in a bulk electric system. in these cases, the conventional generation system analysis used in a Hierarchical Level I (HLI) study is extended to include the transmission facilities. This is known as composite generation and transmission or Hierarchical level II analysis [2]. There has been relatively little work on incorporating load forecast uncertainty in this area [5] relative to that done at HLI. The inclusion of load forecast uncertainty in bulk electric system reliability evaluation is of practical importance and it is necessary to consider both the system load forecast uncertainty and the correlation between the individual buses [5].

References

References is not available for this document.