Probabilistic study of the collapse modes of an area of the French network

A background of increasing uncertainties in all time horizons of power system planning and operation has prompted the development by RTE and NGT of a comprehensive methodology for assessing both the static and dynamic security of a real network facing a large number of uncertainties. The proposed paper briefly describes this methodology and then focuses on one application: study of the collapse modes of an area of the French network

I. Introduction

The proposed article deals with statistical studies on the assessment of the static and dynamic security of a real network facing a large set of uncertainties. Different researches have been carried out on this subject [1], [2], our method is based on the majority of these concepts (Monte-Carlo samplings, dynamic simulations, probability assessment) but in the objective of applying them in an industrial context. The methodology and tool described provide a general facility for the evaluation of transmission system risk. As such, it may be applied in a parametric or probabilistic manner, to provide a detailed description and characterization of the possible system operating space, for example within the context of specified security rules, or a single statistical index. An example of the latter is a reliability index such as those described in [3]. The remainder of this paper presents this general methodology and tool and some examples of its use in characterizing risks to system security.