Assessment Method of the Impact of Energy Policies on Carbon Emission Reduction in the Power System by Using Chronological Operation Simulation

Energy policies play a major role in the development of the power system's low-carbon future and are a crucial tool for macroeconomic regulation. The lack of quantitative research on energy policies, however, is a significant obstacle to the development of low-carbon transformation routes. In order to create a chronological operation simulation (COS) model that takes these policies into account, this paper first chooses a number of common energy policies. This paper then constructs a carbon reduction indicator evaluation system to assess the effectiveness of carbon reduction policies. Finally, based on the Hubei power system, this paper conducts simulation analyses for the years 2025, 2030, 2045, and 2060. Using the simulation analysis results, this paper calculates the indicators and evaluated and ranked the various policy scenarios using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Entropy Weight Method (EWM), and Set Pair Analysis Theory (SPA). Based on the ranking results, the recommendations for policy transformation pathways are provided.

I. Introduction

Over the past two centuries, the extensive use of fossil fuels has led to the excessive emission of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide. The global climate warming caused by the greenhouse effect affects various aspects of human life, posing enormous challenges to human survival. China's low-carbon transformation and growth process may take several decades, and reducing carbon in the electricity sector is a critical first step. Energy policies have been proven as effective tools for reducing carbon emissions [1], [2]. China has put in place a variety of energy regulations to promote the development of industries including energy storage and sustainable energy. However, it is difficult to comprehensively evaluate energy policy due to their diversity and complexity.