Impacts of the Endogenous Uncertainty of Wind Power on Power System Reliability

This paper analyses the impacts of endogenous uncertainty (EU) of wind power on power system reliability. EU of wind power refers to the situation where the dispatch decision of power systems can affect the real-time output uncertainty of wind power. The increasing penetration of wind power raises the concerns of EU on power system reliability. However, the impacts have not been fully investigated. First, the reserve model of wind power generation units is formulated. Then, the model of EU of wind power generation units is given, which illustrates the concept of EU. Thus, a power system reliability assessment method is introduced by integrating the EU model into the conventional power system reliability assessment framework. Case studies are carried out on the modified RBTS test system. Results show that the impacts of EU of wind power on power system reliability grow as the penetration of wind power increases.

I. Introduction

Political pressure on the carbon emission reduction is driving the increasing integration of wind power into power systems at a fast pace. Before 2019, the total global capacity of wind power had already reached 600 GW, and the Global Wind Energy Council anticipates that it will surpass 840 GW by 2022 [1]. Many power systems will be dominated by wind power in the future. As an illustration, the German Environmental Research Council has proposed the establishment of renewable energy power systems where wind power makes up as much as 69.9% of the installed capacity by 2050 [2].