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Rafal A. Angryk - IEEE Xplore Author Profile

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Several natural phenomena, such as floods, earth-quakes, volcanic eruptions, or extreme space weather events often come with severity indexes. While these indexes, whether linear or logarithmic are vital, data-driven predictive models for these events rather use a fixed threshold. In this paper, we explore encoding this ordinality to enhance the performance of data-driven models, with specific app...Show More
This study aims to evaluate the performance of deep learning models in predicting $\geq \mathrm{M}$ -class solar flares with a prediction window of 24 hours, using hourly sampled full-disk line-of-sight (LoS) magnetogram images, particularly focusing on the often overlooked flare events corresponding to the near-limb regions (beyond $+70^{\circ}$ of the solar disk). We trained three well-known dee...Show More
Solar flare prediction is a central problem in space weather forecasting and recent developments in machine learning and deep learning accelerated the adoption of complex models for data-driven solar flare forecasting. In this work, we developed an attention-based deep learning model as an improvement over the standard convolutional neural network (CNN) pipeline to perform full-disk binary flare p...Show More
This study progresses solar flare prediction research by presenting a full-disk deep-learning model to forecast $\geq\mathrm{M}$-class solar flares and evaluating its efficacy on both central (within ±70°) and near-limb beyond ±70°) events, showcasing qualitative assessment of post hoc explanations for the model’s predictions, and providing empirical findings fro human-centered quantitative assess...Show More
In Machine Learning, a supervised model’s performance is measured using the evaluation metrics. In this study, we first present our motivation by revisiting the major limitations of these metrics, namely one-dimensionality, lack of context, lack of intuitiveness, uncomparability, binary restriction, and uncustomizability of metrics. In response, we propose Contingency Space, a bounded semimetric s...Show More
Over the past two decades, machine learning and deep learning techniques for forecasting solar flares have generated great impact due to their ability to learn from a high dimensional data space. However, lack of high quality data from flaring phenomena becomes a constraining factor for such tasks. One of the methods to tackle this complex problem is utilizing trained classifiers with multivariate...Show More
The class-imbalance issue is intrinsic to many real-world machine learning tasks, particularly to the rare-event classification problems. Although the impact and treatment of imbalanced data is widely known, the magnitude of a metric’s sensitivity to class imbalance has attracted little attention. As a result, often the sensitive metrics are dismissed while their sensitivity may only be marginal. ...Show More
Solar energetic particle (SEP) events, as one of the most dangerous manifestations of solar activity, can generate severe hazardous radiation when accelerated by solar flares or shock waves formed aside coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Unlike common predictions that focus on the occurrence of an event, an All-Clear forecast puts more emphasis on predicting the absence of an event. Such forecasts, wh...Show More
The Space-Weather ANalytics for Solar Flares (SWAN-SF) is a multivariate time series benchmark dataset recently created to serve the heliophysics community as a testbed for solar flare forecasting models. SWAN-SF contains 54 unique features, with 24 quantitative features computed from the photospheric magnetic field maps of active regions, describing their precedent flare activity. In this study, ...Show More
Prediction of solar flares is a challenging problem in space weather forecasting that has piqued the interest of many researchers in recent years due to improved data availability and the advancements in the field of machine learning and deep learning. In this paper, we present a solution to full-disk flare prediction using compressed magnetogram images, which was performed by training a set of Co...Show More
General-purpose object-detection algorithms often dismiss the fine structure of detected objects. This can be traced back to how their proposed regions are evaluated. Our goal is to renegotiate the trade-off between the generality of these algorithms and their coarse detections. In this work, we present a new metric that is a marriage of a popular evaluation metric, namely Intersection over Union ...Show More
As one of the primary tasks in data mining, outlier detection serves a significant role in data quality enhancement for the scientific model prediction and revealing the abnormal hidden patterns from large scale trajectory datasets. In this paper, we introduce a versatile framework for detecting local trajectory outliers using spatial and temporal features of moving objects. Our local outlier dete...Show More
Shapelets, also known as motifs, are time series sequences that have the property of discriminating between time series classes. Lately, shapelets studies have gained a lot of momentum due to their interpretable nature. As opposed to traditional time series classifiers, shapelet-based learners provide a visual representation of the pattern that triggers the classification decision. One of the most...Show More
Outlier detection has become one of the core tasks in spatio-temporal data mining. It plays an essential role in data quality improvement for the machine learning models and recognizing the anomalous patterns, which may remarkably deviate from expected patterns among the trajectory datasets. In this work, we propose a clustering-based technique to detect local outliers in trajectory datasets by ut...Show More
An all-clear flare prediction is a type of solar flare forecasting that puts more emphasis on predicting non-flaring instances (often relatively small flares and flare quiet regions) with high precision while still maintaining valuable predictive results. While many flare prediction studies do not address this problem directly, all-clear predictions can be useful in operational context. However, i...Show More
Magnetic polarity inversion line (PIL) in solar active regions have been recognized as essential features for the occurrence of solar flares and the prediction of the flaring phenomenon. In this work, we provide a software framework that detects PILs from the line-of-sight (LoS) or the radial component of the magnetic field vector in active region magnetogram patches. The PIL detection procedure i...Show More
Forecasting the occurrence of solar flares is a typical 21st century rare-event classification task. Over the past two decades, many studies have implemented various techniques and approaches for classification of strong and weak solar flares. The release of the recent flare forecasting benchmark dataset, named SWAN-SF, has opened the door for taking advantage of multivariate time series (MVTS) of...Show More
Image super-resolution is a branch of image processing that is concerned with enhancing the spatial resolution and quality of images by learning the intrinsic details and relations between the lower resolution input and the higher resolution output images. It is widely accepted as an ill-posed problem, which has seen tremendous advancements with deep learning-based models. In this work, we present...Show More
Image super-resolution is a branch of image processing that is concerned with enhancing the spatial resolution and quality of images by learning the intrinsic details and relations between the lower resolution input and the higher resolution output images. It is widely accepted as an ill-posed problem, which has seen tremendous advancements with deep learning based models. In this work, we present...Show More
The imbalanced class problem is intrinsic to solar flare forecasting, as are other issues we find in data-driven forecasting problems that are often hidden within an imbalanced dataset. One method of dealing with imbalanced data is to balance the data by using synthetic oversampling to create synthetic examples of the minority class. Though synthetic oversampling techniques have been applied to pr...Show More
Clustering is an effective unsupervised machine learning method that can be used as a stand-alone heuristic or as a part of a data mining process. The goal of clustering analysis is to partition data into groups with high intra-cluster association, and low inter-cluster association. Hierarchical clustering requires minimal parameters, has flexibility with similarity measure, and has strong visuali...Show More
Space weather encapsulates the impact of variable solar activity on the vicinity of Earth and elsewhere in the solar system. A major agent of space weather, with significant effort already devoted to its prediction, is solar flares. Most existing analysis in this direction focus on the instantaneous (point-in-time) magnitude of various pre-flare parameters in flare host locations, solar active reg...Show More
We use a well-known deep neural network framework, called Mask R-CNN, for identification of solar filaments in full-disk H-$\alpha$ images from Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO). The image data, collected from BBSO's archive, are integrated with the spatiotemporal metadata of filaments retrieved from the Heliophysics Events Knowledgebase (HEK) system. This integrated data is then treated as the gr...Show More
Machine learning-based space weather analytics has attracted much attention due to the potential damages that can be caused by the extreme space weather events. Using a recently released data benchmark, named SWAN-SF, designed for solar flare forecasting based on the pre-flare time series of solar magnetic field parameters, we conduct a case study on the impacts of statistical features derived fro...Show More
In analyses of rare-events, regardless of the domain of application, class-imbalance issue is intrinsic. Although the challenges are known to data experts, their explicit impact on the analytic and the decisions made based on the findings are often overlooked. This is in particular prevalent in interdisciplinary research where the theoretical aspects are sometimes overshadowed by the challenges of...Show More