Contents I. Introduction
Recently, with the continuous increase in symbol rates in optical fiber communication systems, the impact of polarization mode dispersion (PMD) has become increasingly significant and cannot be ignored [1]. In fact, higher symbol rates imply that signals occupy a larger bandwidth, resulting in the transmission system exhibiting higher-order PMD effects [2]. This undoubtedly places significant stress on digital signal processing (DSP), leading to system performance instability. In other words, as time and frequency evolve, PMD is no longer a constant, and its correlation at different frequency points decreases, which significantly reduces the compensation capability of the algorithms at the receiver [3]. This presents a challenge in obtaining accurate outage probabilities, which in turn hinders the assessment of system performance and the prediction of future states. Therefore, it is essential to develop a simple and effective method for accurately predicting the outage probability of optical communication systems caused by PMD.
