Probabilistic Operational Risk Indicators of Power System towards Carbon Neutrality

In order to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, the proportion of new energy connected to the power system has been increasing. In Northwest China and other regions, new energy is transmitted to the load centers through long-distance DC transmission and short-distance AC transmission simultaneously. The uncertainty of new energy and AC-DC hybrid system leads to a sharp increase in operational risk of power system. Firstly, based on the existing conventional operational risk indicators, the operational risk indicators reflecting the characteristics of new energy integration and AC-DC hybrid transmission are added; Secondly, based on the probability model of new energy power fluctuation, three state probability model of DC system and probability model of AC operation state, the probabilistic operational risk indicators are formed; Finally, through the operational risk assessment of the improved IEEE-RTS79 bus system, the effectiveness of the proposed probabilistic operational risk indicators is verified.