Modeling and Application of Probabilistic Electrical Household Loads in Distribution Grid Simulations

Due to the decarbonization of the energy system, electrical distribution grids will face new challenges in the future, which need to be analyzed in simulation models. To meet the increased requirements on distribution grid simulations, detailed load and generation models are necessary. In this paper, we present a method for the probabilistic bottom-up modeling of household load profiles that makes use of more recent and detailed data than has been done in previous works. This enables an in-depth and up-to-date modeling of resident behavior. We demonstrate that the generated profiles are plausible and meet the statistical average annual energy demands. Furthermore, the simultaneity factor and the correlation of the modeled profiles with standard load profiles are investigated. Finally, we emphasize the impact of probabilistic profiles on asset utilization and node voltages as opposed to the use of standard load profiles and show the advantages of using probabilistic profiles in distribution grid simulations.