The Role of Cognitive Frames that Impede and Drive the Technological Evolution

Many studies have explored the mechanisms that shape a pattern of technological transition. Some focus on the fundamental nature of technology or technological potential to be explored. Others explain it from an economic perspective by referring to the industry players’ economic incentives to invest in technology. Despite such a stream of research, we still have limited abilities to project the timing of the technological transition. This is partly because researchers have not considered how industry players recognize a potential of technology and its economic implication. By examining the evolution of optical lithography technology, this paper uncovers how cognitive frames shared by industry players have affected the timing of technology transition. We mainly investigate two technologies, CMP (chemical mechanical polishing) and ArF immersion technology, which had critical impacts on the evolution of lithography. Based on in-depth case studies, we illustrate why these two technologies had been ignored for many years, impeding further performance improvement, and why they suddenly drew much attention and induced further development. We illustrate how cognitive frames possessed or shared by engineers affect selection of technologies and, in turn, the timing of the technological transition.