Discrete event simulation to support capacity planning for heart failure patients

Patients with heart failure (HF) are admitted to the hospital in a non-elective way. Receiving intravenous medication, they are very limited in their activities of daily living (ADL), resulting in intensive nursing care. To predict the needed capacity, a distinction is made between currently-admitted patients and patients that will be admitted in the near future. Computer simulation is used to predict when new HF patients can be expected and when they will be discharged. The simulation model also provides information about the ADL status of the patients. Former HF patients are used to predict when current HF patients that have already been admitted into the cardiology department will be discharged. The results of tests of both methods are presented and discussed.