Photovoltaic Energy Production Forecasting and Operational Analytics: A Real-World Study

Photovoltaic energy production is one of the major parts for the shift of our societies away from fossil fuels. Their irregular nature however poses a challenge for electricity grid managers. PV energy production forecasting and monitoring is extremely important to guarantee that the grid will be able to supply consumers at all times and without any unexpected interruptions. Our goal is to provide build a system that can effectively monitor all aspects of the operation of a PV power station and provide owners, facility managers and power grid administrators with high quality forecasts and operational insights. To better understand and evaluate our work, we test our system in a real-world case study from Arta, Greece, and benchmark the effectiveness of both mathematical models and machine learning based solutions with regards to both precision, consistency and trustworthiness.