Study on Aging Assessment Model of Transformer Cellulose Insulation Paper Based on Methanol in Oil

Methanol is considered to be a new chemical marker to estimate the aging state of transformer cellulose insulation paper. The key to improve the assessment accuracy is to establish the precise relationship between the concentration of methanol in oil and degree of polymerization (DP) of insulation paper. The previous research in this area has shortcomings and needs to be further improved. In this article, first, an aging assessment basic model (temperature 20 °C, moisture content of insulation paper 0.637%) is established based on the theoretical derivation of cellulose degradation kinetics, and is calculated by 130 °C thermal aging experiment. Furthermore, the effects of different temperatures (20 °C–90 °C) and moisture contents of insulation paper (0.6%–3.4%) on methanol in oil are studied by diffusion experiment. Based on the above effects, the temperature and moisture correction factors are established by mathematical reduction. What is more, a modified model is proposed by integrating the basic model and the correction factors. Eventually, the verification experiment is randomly prepared to test the accuracy of modified model and the result shows that the relative error of DP is within 7%. The physical meaning and accuracy of aging assessment are improved by model derivation and modification of influencing factors.