Implementation of Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) Method for Forecasting the Number of Dengue Patients Web-based

Dengue is a disease with the number of cases increasing every year. In Indonesia, Dengue is one of the main problems in public health. One of the factors causing the increase in dengue cases is climate change which is uncertain and makes the disease difficult to predict. Forecasting is important to predict future events by using past data references. The purpose of this research is to implement and provide a systematic description of data forecasting for Dengue patients. The Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) method can be used to predict the number of dengue patients based on existing historical data. This study uses historical data for patients with dengue in the city of Bandung in 2016 – 2019. With sub-district variables, male patients and female sufferers are used. The results obtained that the smallest MAPE value of 0.78% was in Buah Batu sub-district and the largest MAPE was 13.70% in Cinambo sub-district for data on male Dengue patients. Data for female Dengue patients shows that the lowest MAPE value is 1.59% in Batununggal sub-district and the largest MAPE is 15.10% in Bandung Wetan sub-district and the average MAPE value in all sub-districts in Bandung is 5.74% for data for female patients and 5.66% for male patients.