Research on Water Resources Bearing Capacity Based on System Dynamics

In this paper, five sub-systems of social, economic, agricultural, ecological and water environment were established by using system dynamics method, and the water resources carrying capacity of Gansu Province was simulated from 2009 to 2030. The results show that agricultural irrigation water accounts for a large proportion of total water consumption in Gansu Province, and reducing irrigation water is the main measure to alleviate the carrying capacity of water resources. Under the conventional model and the economic development model. The contradiction between water supply and demand has intensified. Water pollution is rising fastest. The increase in source and decrease in expenditure has a significant effect on improving the balance between supply and demand of water resources. Environmental friendly in the discharge and treatment of water pollution has been effective. The coordinated development model can realize the coordinated development of the whole economic society and water resources.