Medium-Long Term Load Forecasting Model Based On System Dynamics And ImPACT Equation

With the development showing more emphasis on sustainable development, innovative development, and environmental protection, the future power demand will be increasingly affected by renewable energy, technological progress, environmental protection policy. Because of the lack of consideration of the above factors in the existing references, this paper proposes a medium-long term load forecasting model based on system dynamics and the ImPACT equation, which comprehensively considers the above factors. Based on the improved system dynamics model, the prediction results are compared with the traditional system dynamics model which only considers the traditional factors, and the electricity consumption of China from 2020 to 2050 under different development scenarios is predicted. This paper studies the impact of renewable energy, technological progress, and environmental protection policy on future electricity consumption by setting high, middle, and low scenarios of these three factors. The research results of this paper can provide important basic information for future power system planning.