Modeling Methods Comparison of Urban Public Transport Movement for ITS

Urban public transport development is an effective way to reduce traffic congestion and improve social mobility efficiency in cities. Improving bus transportation quality is helping to attract more passengers by eliminating private cars. This can only happen if total effect of urban public transport use exceeds all advantages of using individual transport mobility. In most cases, when buses arrival time at stopping points is not predicted, and buses themselves move out of schedule, there can be no question of any worthy alternative to personal transport. This is one of obvious factors in decline in passenger transport services quality. This article presents three methods for modeling traffic flow for predicting buses arrival times at stopping points: based on Markov chains, based on an improved hydrodynamic model and based on the use operational calculus elements and reducing solution of equations posed to integral equations numerical solutions taking into account spatiotemporal characteristics of buses movement. These methods have been tested in practice within modeling traffic flows framework in the Vologda (Russia) city to assess possibility and features of predicting buses arrival time at stopping points. On the basis of practical application, recommendations are given on possibility of using these methods in ITS implementation for large cities.