Modeling of the Russian Ruble Exchange Rate: Long-Term Dynamics

Developed in accordance with the author's International Flows Equilibrium Exchange Rate concept, the new model of long-term dynamics of the ruble exchange rate uses a wide range of functionally interrelated factors that determine the national currency dynamics. We use the foreign trade operations, the international capital flows with intertemporal decisions of investors, the international terms of trade as an indicator of relative competitive advantages, the index of real aggregate output as the real GDP, the indices of domestic and average actual export prices, and the consumer price index as the basic macroeconomic aggregates. Considerable attention is paid to mathematical modeling of the long-term dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in comparison with the medium-term equilibrium dynamics.