On the Curtailments of Variable Renewable Energy Sources in Europe and the Role of Load Shifting

The constant increase of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) into the energy mix will pose significant challenges in the operation of the future European power system. In this paper, we investigate the curtailments of these sources due to the power transfer limitations posed by the transmission grid as well as limitations in demand flexibility. To that end, a pan-European dispatch model with high spatial and temporal resolution is developed, which also allows for part of the electricity load to be shifted. Due to the significant problem size, the model consists of four separate levels with different spatial resolutions temporal coupling horizons. For the investigation of the future European power system, respective scenarios for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 are implemented in high spatial and temporal resolution and analyzed with regard to VRES curtailments and the impact of load shifting. It is found that curtailments rise dramatically for 2050, primarily due to the increased wind generation near the North and Baltic seas. Moreover, it is shown that the rationale of the corresponding scenario, in terms of the degree of spatial distribution of generation, constitutes one of the most influential factors for the amount of VRES curtailments. On the contrary, it is shown that load shifting can only exhibit limited capacity in reducing curtailments (2% - 9%), primarily restricted by the available shifting window and the scenario rationale. The total amount of VRES curtailments for 2050 reaches 1,122 TWh in the "100% RES" scenario.