Wind Turbine Power Output Estimation with Probabilistic Power Curves

Wind turbine power output estimation is an important problem in wind energy research work. Deterministic and probabilistic power curve models were reported when predicting the wind turbine power output. This paper proposes a probabilistic power curve model, and demonstrates it using field data from a wind farm in Alberta, Canada. Normal distribution and Weibull distribution are used to represent the probability density function of power output at various wind speed. Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate random predicting power output. The predicted result is compared with the observed data by 3 measurements and the proposed model is found performs better than other deterministic models and probabilistic models.