Risk Analysis based on Gaussian Mixture Model for GENCOs in Short Term Market

In recent years, the rapid growth of generations and the loads leads to make the system more complex and difficult to predict their behavior under different constraints. The main objective is to perform security constrained unit commitment economic dispatch (SCUCED) in day-ahead and real time market while determining the marginal prices under different risk conditions such as generator outages. Considering the marginal prices under uncertainties, the effect of generators transactions on load transactions and vice-versa. The effect of uncertainties on the market prices are determined by Gaussian mixture approximation model. The effect of variation of marginal prices of any generator on other participating generators is being obtained by clustering analysis. The proposed approach is effective when determining the range of market prices for the participants under uncertainties. The problem is mixed integer linear programming which is solved by MATPOWER. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is applied on modified IEEE 30 bus system.