Statistical Characterization of Electric Power Production and Importation: Case Study of Benin Electricity Community (CEB)

The regularity between electricity supply and demand brings electricity companies to develop efficient and reliable models based on deterministic or stochastic approaches. To satisfy the demand of both Togolese and Beninese Republics in the interconnected area apart from its own production of Nangbeto hydropower plant, Benin Electricity Company imports electricity from Volta River Authority in Ghana, Transmission Company of Nigeria in Nigeria, and Ivoirian Electricity Company in Ivory Coast. The scope of this paper is to propose a statistical approach using probability density functions to characterize the electricity generation of Nangbeto hydropower plant and electricity importation from Volta River Authority / Ivoirian Electricity Company Transmission Company of Nigeria. The aim is to predict the probability of electrical energy available at each generation and importation source at a given time. By using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit test and some statistical performance indicators, it is demonstrated that Skewnormal distribution provides a better fitting of the production data and importation from VRA/CIE. However, the Weibull distribution fits well the importations from TCN.