Reliability Assessment of Microgrid Island Operation Considering Probability Distribution of Wind Farm Output

The reliability of microgrid running in island mode with wind farm is evaluated in this paper. The concept of equivalent power characteristic of wind turbine is proposed to obtain the actual available output of the whole wind farm. And then its probability distribution is modeled by using Gauss mixture model (GMM), of which the superiority is proved by comparing with other distribution function models. The working state of the power components is sampled by using Monte Carlo simulation method to study the variation trend of the reliability index of microgrid running in island mode with wind farm. And then the probability distribution of reliability index is obtained. Meanwhile, the indicators value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) are introduced to analyze the microgrid reliability, which can fully reflect the influence of the probabilistic fluctuation of wind farm output on microgrid operation reliability.