Stochastic Model of Parametric Prediction of Reliability of Radio-Electronic Systems

Research rationale and aims. The technical condition of radio-electronic systems depends on a multitude of parameters that change in course of operation, which can lead to the loss of system operation capacity, additional maintenance and repair costs. Reduction of running costs of radio-electronic systems while maintaining the required quality is an important task that calls for improving the methods for predicting their technical condition. The aim of this work is to develop the model for predicting the parameters of the radio-electronic system during operation. Methods. The prediction model was built on the basis of Markov chain theory and Markov branching process in particular. The model's stochastic characteristics were determined using the mathematical methods of generating functions. Result. The obtained stochastic model for parameter prediction of radio-electronic systems reliability possesses, as different from other approaches, analytical solutions for the system of differential equations. Conclusions. The suggested model can be used for predicting the RES parameter reliability and technical condition depending on the time of operation.