Probabilistic Forecasting Changes in Magnitude of Insulation Resistance of Line Cable and Wire Workshop Networks

In the paper a forecasting theory is used to generate models in order to calculate practical reliability plots shop networks and take into account the operating conditions. The current level of development of the system of shop electric power supply allows us to classify the latter as the category of large energy systems with all their inherent properties: the purposeful functioning in changing conditions; interaction of elements, including man, to achieve the set goals; a large number of changing parameters that determine the nature of the operation and its result; management, functioning and development in conditions of ambiguously known behavior of the system; the development in time of the goals and capabilities of the system, the availability of many criteria for assessing the success of decisions on management of functioning and development. Technical systems consisting of structurally independent units that have the ability to rebuild their structure to remain operational in the event of failure of individual parts, in the theory of reliability, are called complex technical systems. The number of operable states of such systems is two or more. Each of the workable states is characterized by its work efficiency, which can be measured by productivity, the probability of accomplishing the task, etc. The index of reliability of a complex system can be the total probability of system availability - the sum of the probabilities of all operable states of the system under the influence of all the factors that affect it. In the market economy conditions, the requirements to the accuracy of calculating the reliability of power supply system's increase when planning, controlling and analyzing the technical and economic performance of industrial enterprises.