Fault Probability Analysis and Life Prediction of Avionics Based on Exponential Distribution Model

The key to analyze the reliability of aeronautical equipment is to establish a reliability model that can reflect the failure mechanism of the system and conform to the results of the failure data analysis. The modeling method is to select the most suitable distribution form and estimate the distribution parameters by using the failure data in the maintenance information. In order to describe the failure and life rule of avionics more truly and improve the accuracy and efficiency of reliability analysis, we propose a reliability data analysis method based on exponential distribution. In this method, the fault data of avionics are fitted with different distributions, and the goodness of fit is judged by probability plot. Under the level of confidence interval condition, life distribution model is chosen when the Anderson-Darling value is minimum. And on this basis, the reliability analysis is carried out in depth. Finally, an application example in the field of aviation equipment support is given. The analysis results show that the method is simple and feasible. This method can provide a theoretical basis for determining the time of component replacement in the maintenance process of avionics.