Integrating Statistical Response Time Models in Architectural Performance Models

Performance predictions enable software architects to optimize the performance of a software system early in the development cycle. Architectural performance models and statistical response time models are commonly used to derive these performance predictions. However, both methods have significant downsides: Statistical response time models can only predict scenarios for which training data is available, making the prediction of previously unseen system configurations infeasible. In contrast, the time required to simulate an architectural performance model increases exponentially with both system size and level of modeling detail, making the analysis of large, detailed models challenging. Existing approaches use statistical response time models in architectural performance models to avoid modeling subsystems that are difficult or time-consuming to model, yet they do not consider simulation time. In this paper, we propose to model software systems using classical queuing theory and statistical response time models in parallel. This approach allows users to tailor the model for each analysis run, based on the performed adaptations and the requested performance metrics. Our approach enables faster model solution compared to traditional performance models while retaining their ability to predict previously unseen scenarios. In our experiments we observed speedups of up to 94.8%, making the analysis of much larger and more detailed systems feasible.