Premature Aircraft Maintenance: A Matter of Cost or Risk?

Despite recent advances in aircraft maintenance technology, the breakdowns and catastrophic accidents due to human failure during maintenance activities will continue to occur. This paper argues that the impact of human error is amplified by the increased frequency of activities as a result of premature maintenance (PRM). PRM refers to predated or early maintenance tasks resulting in additional activities over a long horizon. A novel methodology is proposed to monetize the impact of PRM and show its contribution to total maintenance cost. The proposed methodology is inspired by the proportional hazard model to capture the effects of human failure on the system's hazard rate. Our findings show that the contribution of PRM to the total operating cost is noticeable; this justifies a level of flight delay or even cancellation due to accommodate on-time maintenance activities.