Forecasting and simulation of electrical loads in decentralized zones in Russia

A technique for simulation of domestic, social and industrial electrical loads in decentralized power supply systems is considered in the paper. To commercialize renewable energy plants as parts of self-contained systems, several engineering problems are to be solved; the most important of them is matching the power generation and operation conditions at stochastic time variations in the power demand and output power of a primary source. Energy consumption is a complex and time-dependent process and could be represented by several regular and irregular components. An approach to solution of the problem of matching the power generation and use conditions is mathematically described, which allows estimation of production volume and schedule of a self-contained power supply system based on the diesel-engine power plants or renewable energy sources. The solution suggested is tested for Yakutia and the Tomsk region as examples.