Nonlinear regression analysis of failure probability of power grid equipment based on its condition

In allusion to the deviation with the EA empirical formula on analyzing interrelationship of the power grid equipment condition and its fault probability, this paper uses history statistics data of power grid equipment conditions and their fault probabilities and puts forward the correction method for EA empirical formula based on the nonlinear regression analysis theory. Through tracking and collecting condition evaluation results and fault data of 110kV power cables in Shenzhen power grids from the year 2010 to 2011, the SPSS statistics analysis method is adopted to estimate the sample parameters and fit the relationship curve for the operation conditions of power grid equipment and their fault probability. The correlation coefficient of nonlinear regression is used to verify the correction function.