Effects of solar resource variability on the future Florida transmission and distribution system

A common critique of photovoltaic energy is the susceptibility of the systems to high variability- passing clouds can affect a site's day-to-day energy production substantially. This research developed a tool to simulate photovoltaic energy systems in several scenarios throughout the state of Florida and quantifies the hour-to-hour impact of these systems on the statewide generation mix using 11 years of historical weather data. While the hourly changes in aggregate system output for distributed PV systems was predictable between months, finer geographic granularity of irradiance data coupled with sub-hourly time intervals are required to further develop this model into one that is indispensable for utility system operators.