Estimating substation peaks from load research data

Load research data is used to develop kWh-to-peak-kW conversion factors, diversity factors, and average time-varying load data as a function of customer class, month, and type of day. A new method, nonlinear load research based estimation (NLRE), is used to derive monthly load shapes by customer class for estimating the peak MW load on substations as a function of total MWh usage by customer class, type of day, and month. Four substations at Hot Springs, Arkansas are used for estimation of monthly peak and the results are compared with measured values from a SCADA system. The results show improved accuracy of the NLRE estimated substation peaks in comparison with the previous method.