A learning curve approach to projecting cost and performance in thin film photovoltaics

The current cost of electricity generated by PV power is still extremely high with respect to utility power and there remain questions as to whether PV power can ever be competitive with electricity generated by fossil fuels. A previous paper by the authors supplied an objective framework for considering this important question and introduced analytical tools to define and project the technical/economic status of PV power through the year 2010. In this paper, we update this previous work in the context of the announcements by Amoco/Enron Solar of projected sales of PV power in 1997 at rates considerably less than the US average.