Can Success be Planned? - China's Path to Technology Leadership in Green Electricity and Hydrogen and its Implications for Europe and the United States

Given the importance of renewable energy sources in a decarbonized world, this paper looks at China's rapid progress in green technologies in recent years and compares it to the European Union and the United States. To this end, it examines the cumulative installed capacity of solar and wind energy since 2000 and analyzes international trade flows for selected green technology components. A systematic keyword search of China's five-year plans adds a political dimension to the analysis. We show that China has achieved a globally unique development in terms of both installed capacity and supply of clean technologies, overtaking Europe and the United States. This accurately reflects the strategic direction of China's key policy documents. Finally, we discuss recent industrial policy responses from the European Union and the United States, such as the European Green Deal and the Inflation Reduction Act, and their potential impact on future global supply chains.