Load Forecasting of 110kV Power Transformer based on Customer Maximum Capacity Model

Achieving maximum capacity refers to the state that the customer operates at full capacity. Achieving maximum capacity is an important indicator in the field of industry, commercial and service industry which required a large amount of electricity supply. This paper proposes an incremental load forecasting model for rural 110kV power transformer based on customer maximum capacity model. Firstly, the historical electricity consumption data of different industries in Changsha in year 2010–2023 were collected. Then, the rules of various customers reaching maximum capacity were analyzed. The least squares method was used for simulating the load incremental model. In the case study section, maximum capacity model were established using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm based on three typical industries.