Significant Wave Height Prediction Based on VMD-SA-MLP-BP

Waves seriously impact port construction, worldwide route planning, military activities, and wave power generation. To improve the accuracy of significant wave height prediction, we proposed a novel prediction method, a multi-layer perceptron combined with a backpropagation adjustment (MLP-BP) prediction model that combines mutation mode decomposition (VMD) and a simulated annealing optimization algorithm (SA). Firstly, we use the variable modulus method to decompose the significant wave height sequence data and transform the wave height sequence into multiple different sub-modes (IMF) to reduce the complexity and non-stationarity of the data. Secondly, the simulated annealing algorithm (SA) is used to optimize the weight and bias of the MLP-BP neural network to find the optimal parameter configuration and improve the performance and generalization ability of the prediction model. Finally, the decomposed sub-modal components of each significant wave height sequence are inserted into the MLP-BP neural network and the predicted values of each element are summed to obtain the final significant wave height prediction. The prediction results of the SSA-MLP-BP, PSO-MLP-BP, SA-MLP-BP, and VMD-SA-MLP-BP were compared and demonstrated that the VMD-SA-MLP-BP model performed best. The MAE, MAPE, MSE, RMSE, and R2 of the prediction evaluation indexes were 0.036 m, 11.7%, 0.004 m
²
, 0.067 m, and 0.983, respectively, which performed well in predicting significant wave height.