Research on Risk Assessment in Complex Projects Based on TOPSIS Algorithm and Complex Network Theory

In a continuously changing economic environment, the risk factors involved in the whole life cycle of complex projects have become increasingly diverse and complex, posing the dilemma of risk management in complex projects. Therefore, this paper aims to identify the risk factors throughout the whole life cycle of complex projects and to evaluate and rank the magnitude of risk impacts from the view of risk interaction. This paper first uses the literature review method to comprehensively identify the risk factors, then adopts the focus group method to gather the interaction information among these risk factors, and finally constructs the complex project risk network. Using the visualization software Gephi 0.9.2, this paper analyzes the major parameters of the complex project risk network. Employing the TOPSIS algorithm, the paper combines the values of the evaluation parameters to rank the magnitude of risk impacts. The results show that risks of construction quality, risks of changes in project design solutions and risks of overspending on project operating costs are factors that have the greatest impact on the project. The policy risk, legal risk, and interest rate risk are the risks that have the least impact on the project. The findings presented in this article not only add to the expanding field of risk identification in complex projects but also introduce new concepts related to risk ranking based on the interactions between risks factors. Also, the results of the risk ranking provide instructions on which risks should be focused on in risk management.