Configuration Evolution Model for Distribution Network with High-proportion New Energy Based on System Dynamics

Under the situation of clean, low-carbon and intelligent energy revolution, high proportion of new energy has become a prominent feature of the future development of power system. Due to the combined influence of high-proportion new energy and other uncertain factors, the configuration of distribution network is also evolving. The judgment of evolution direction can be helpful to the future planning and development of distribution network, this paper investigates the configuration evolution of distribution network with system dynamics. Firstly, this paper analyzes the uncertain factors driving the configuration evolution of distribution network. Then, the key factors are extracted and the configuration evolution model for distribution network is constructed with system dynamics. Lastly, the simulation analysis is conducted using the data of a province in the eastern coast of China. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model can not only reflect the trend of the proportion of new energy in the future distribution network, but also forecasts the configuration evolution direction of the future distribution network. Under the parameter settings in this paper, the configuration of future distribution network is most likely to evolve into honeycomb or diamond.