Mathematical model of the software development process according to the “outsource” scheme

The software development process is complex and multifaceted, influenced by a multitude of factors such as project complexity, collaboration among different teams, interaction with clients, and development methodologies. Efficiently managing this process becomes a crucial task for ensuring quality and meeting deadlines. In the context of the “outsourcing” scheme, where certain stages of software product development can be delegated to external specialists or teams, challenges arise in assessing the probabilistic-temporal characteristics of the development process. Questions arise about the expected time for each stage's completion, the likelihood of meeting set deadlines, and the factors exerting the greatest impact on process effectiveness. The objective of this research is to develop a mathematical model that enables the analysis of probabilistic-temporal characteristics of software development processes within the “outsourcing” scheme. The model takes into account various factors, including participants' expertise level, communication effectiveness, and other parameters influencing stage durations. The proposed mathematical model incorporates probabilistic transitions between stages, with transition probabilities and intensities depending on the involvement of external specialists and communication effectiveness. Relevant probabilistic distributions are used to estimate the duration of each stage, and statistical methods are employed to analyze probabilistic outcomes. By considering the intricacies of the “outsourcing” scheme, this study aims to facilitate informed decision-making in resource allocation, project planning, and risk assessment within the domain of software development. Insights derived from the model's probabilistic-temporal characteristics provide valuable tools for enhancing process management and outcomes in the dynamic realm of software development.