Geomagnetic Disturbance Uncertainty Quantification Modeling: An Electromagnetic Transient and Steady-State Simulation based Approach

Geomagnetic disturbances have been shown to disrupt the operation of the bulk electrical system through lowfrequency effects in the earth’s magnetic field that in turn induce changing electrical fields on the earth’s surface. As a result, geomagnetically induced currents flow in transmission lines, introducing the risk for widespread damage to high-voltage transformers and voltage collapse due to induced reactive power loss. In a previous work, the authors showed how certain modeling assumptions can lead to results that are unacceptable in certain edge case scenarios. In this paper, the authors build on their previous results using a probabilistic approach for uncertainty quantification in order to compare the results from electromagnetic transient program modeling software, ATP, to the positive-sequence calculation software, PowerWorld.