Analyzing the Pattern of the Jordanian Electricity Peak Load Amid Renewable Energy Transition Considering the GDP and Population Growth

This This paper aims to analyze the pattern of the electricity peak load of the Jordanian power network amid the renewable energy transition and to predict the peak load for the next ten years. It investigates the correlation between the population growth and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as an economic indicator, of the country and the peak load change through the years. Then, the yearly peak load is predicted using the linear regression model and an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to have a better insight on the power generation requirements for the next ten years. The results have shown that both the population growth and the GDP have a strong correlation with the yearly peak load of electricity. The results indicate that, if the same rate of growth of both the population and GDP is kept, the electricity peak load would increase from 3770 MW in 2021 up to around 5300 MW in 2034. This represents an increment of 41%, with a yearly rate of 3.4% approximately. In addition, the electricity peak load would be doubled by 25 years.