Plausible Uncertainties for Human Pose Regression

Human pose estimation (HPE) is integral to scene understanding in numerous safety-critical domains involving human-machine interaction, such as autonomous driving or semi-automated work environments. Avoiding costly mistakes is synonymous with anticipating failure in model predictions, which necessitates meta-judgments on the accuracy of the applied models. Here, we propose a straightforward human pose regression framework to examine the behavior of two established methods for simultaneous aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty estimation: maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimation with Monte-Carlo variational inference and deep evidential regression (DER). First, we evaluate both approaches on the quality of their predicted variances and whether these truly capture the expected model error. The initial assessment indicates that both methods exhibit the overconfidence issue common in deep probabilistic models. This observation motivates our implementation of an additional recalibration step to extract reliable confidence intervals. We then take a closer look at deep evidential regression, which, to our knowledge, is applied comprehensively for the first time to the HPE problem. Experimental results indicate that DER behaves as expected in challenging and adverse conditions commonly occurring in HPE and that the predicted uncertainties match their purported aleatoric and epistemic sources. Notably, DER achieves smooth uncertainty estimates without the need for a costly sampling step, making it an attractive candidate for uncertainty estimation on resource-limited platforms.