Load Curve Based on Modeling a Photovoltaic System, Load and Weather Data - a Case Study in Brazil

This study presents a comprehensive case study centered around the modeling of a load curve for a public education institution in Brazil that harnesses energy from distributed sources, specifically photovoltaic panels. Actual demand data, sourced from an energy analyzer, and weather data collected through an automated weather station, were integrated into the photovoltaic generation model. The model's efficacy was meticulously assessed, juxtaposing the actual and simulated photovoltaic generation data, which showcased a remarkable alignment with a percentage error of merely 6.88%. Furthermore, the study delved into weekly load curve simulations spanning the spring and summer seasons. These simulations yielded a compelling percentage error of 8.01%. These outcomes underscore the potential of the proposed load curve model, not only in strategic solar energy production planning but also in the strategic optimization of energy costs. This work not only underscores the feasibility of accurate load curve prediction but also illuminates the capacity to explore solar energy production potential, thereby opening avenues for future research in revenue generation and energy credit evaluation.