Comparative Analysis of Time Series Models for Maternal Mortality Ratio Forecasting

Maternal Mortality remains a pressing global health concern, with substantial efforts aimed at its reduction. Time series analysis offers a powerful approach to unraveling temporal patterns and trends underlying Maternal Mortality Ratios (MMR), aiding in the formulation of targeted interventions and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive time series analysis of MMR data spanning multiple years, leveraging advanced statistical techniques and computational tools like ARIMA, SARIMA and Exponential Smoothing, identifying recurring patterns, seasonality, and long-term trends in MMR. In this study, we conducted a time series analysis of the maternal mortality ratio, revealing that SARIMA outperformed ARIMA and exponential smoothing, providing the most accurate and insightful results. The findings extracted from this analysis can inform evidence-based strategies aimed at reducing maternal mortality rates and improving maternal healthcare systems.