Practice of Forecasting Power Supply and Demand Development Based on Parametric Energy-Environmental Planning Model@@A Case Study in the Main Urban Area of Nanjing

The energy-environment model is often used to forecast medium and long-term energy trends under environmental boundary conditions, and has good potential for forecasting power supply and demand development with carbon emission limit value. Nanjing, as one of the core cities in the Yangtze River Delta region of China, is a strong economic city with pillar industries including automobile industry, steel industry and petrochemical materials. In recent years, Nanjing's industrial structure and energy consumption structure are undergoing rapid changes, and the position of electric energy in its terminal energy consumption is gradually increasing. In this study, the Parametric Energy-Environment Planning System (PEEP) is used to forecast the development of the electricity supply and demand structure in the main urban area of Nanjing, taking into account the terminal demand for energy and the supply and demand structure of energy species. The development trend of social electricity consumption in the future decades and its key influencing factors are evaluated, which provide reference for the electricity planning in the main urban area of Nanjing and also the whole Jiangsu Province. In the "Progressive Development Path" (PDP) scenario, the end-use electricity consumption ratio in Nanjing's main urban area will reach about 42% in 2030, and social electricity consumption will increase by 32% compared to 2020; the end-use electricity consumption ratio will reach about 55% in 2060.