Prognostics, from the need to reality-from the fleet users and PHM system designer/developers perspectives

Prognostics is one of the more challenging aspects of the modern Prognostic and Health Management (PHM) system. It also has the potential to be the most beneficial, both in terms of reduced Operational and Support (O&S) and life cycle costs and improved safety of the air vehicle. The evolution of aircraft diagnostic monitoring systems has led to the recognition that predictive prognostic is both desired and technically possible. The new Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) supportability concept, Autonomic Logistics, includes a comprehensive and robust air vehicle PHM. system as one of its key enabling elements. The NAVAIR Helicopter Usage Monitoring System (HUMS), known as the Integrated Mechanical Diagnostic System (IMDS), uses advance diagnostics capabilities but is also formulating a strategy to demonstrate prognostics. This paper attempts to discuss the evolution of diagnostics to prognostics from individual platform program histories; the fleet users needs and capabilities; and the diagnostic, PHM system designer and developer's needs and capabilities perspectives. Some of the advanced diagnostics and PHM capabilities envisioned for the JSF are discussed in relation to the Autonomic Logistics concept.