Uncertainties in PV Power Simulation Chain

Considering the situation in the global renewable energy industry, photovoltaic (PV) power plants are becoming an increasingly significant player. In addition to the long-term PV system yield prediction, it is necessary to determine the uncertainty related to each step in the PV simulation chain, which directly impacts financial parameters of the project. This is an essential input in the feasibility studies during development, and performance evaluation during operational stage of the PV power plant. Currently, the industry deals with the analysis of uncertainty on a yearly basis. However, there is a lack of knowledge focused on uncertainty determination with monthly, daily, or hourly time resolution, needed in monitoring or fault-detection applications. This paper is concerned with the theoretical analysis of uncertainties determined in the actual operating conditions for each block of the PV simulation chain from the input solar irradiation resource to the electrical power output at grid connection point.