Price Risk Assessment of Electricity Markets Considering the Uncertainties of Natural Gas Supply

The large-scale introduction of natural gas units makes the power system and natural gas system more closely coupled, which also results in unsafe and unreliable factors during the operation of the power system. Therefore, based on the interaction mechanism between gas source supply and power market operation, the power market operation risk assessment method considering the uncertainty of natural gas supply is proposed. This method can realize the real-time assessment and analysis of the power market operation risk under different natural gas power generation levels. Firstly, a model of the natural gas system is proposed to convert the influence of the natural gas system into the output of the gas unit. Secondly, the electricity price risk assessment index system considering the uncertainty of natural gas supply including average node price, node price peak, and active load reduction is proposed. Finally, a case study consisting of an IEEE 30-bus system and a 20-bus Belgian gas network is conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method using the Monte Carlo stochastic simulation method.