Mathematical Modeling Methods of Evolutionary Dynamics of Wetland Ecosystems in a Changing Climate

The determination of changes in wetland areas in global practice is based on the use of remote sensing data. However, remote sensing does not provide an understanding of the internal and external conditions related to climate change. Therefore, the work proposes for the first time a synergistic approach based on mathematical methods and models of ecosystem dynamics, and the determination of structural features for decision-making. Mathematical models were formalized for the conditions when human activity and external driving forces do not affect the state of the ecosystem. Such an ecosystem remains stable. At the same time, the oscillation occurs in the form of a closed curve, and the equilibrium point is called the “center”. A model of the ecosystem dynamics in a changing climate was built, where additional internal (impact of land reclamation, deforestation) and external conditions (increase in temperature and evaporation) arise, which lead to bifurcation of the system, changes in the attractors and structural conditions of dynamic system functioning. Modeling of the wetland ecosystem in the forest massif of the Sluch River basin in Polissia was made. The change of model parameters corresponding to the driving forces of ecosystem evolution is shown.