A Knowledge-Based System to Predict Crime from Criminal Records in the Case of Hossana Police Commission

Crime is a complex social phenomenon, and its cost continues to rise over time. Police have collected a large amount of data on criminals every day for different crimes. However, extracting valuable information from these data takes time and effort for the law enforcement organization at hand. Therefore, effective crime prevention strategies and policies are necessary to prevent crime. Criminology is one of the most important areas for data mining. The purpose of this study is to extract useful crime patterns from past data and develop a knowledge-based system to prevent crime. Different criminals commit different crimes, but we do not know which criminal commits which crime. For this purpose, the 910 criminal records are used to train and test the model. To predict a crime, the classification technique and the J48 decision tree, random forest (RF), PART, and ensemble algorithms are used. As a result, the algorithm scored an accuracy of 75.38%, 80.4%,73.7%, and 81.3% in the J48, RF, PART, and ensemble methods, respectively, in a 10- fold cross-validation. Additionally, the offender's job is the determining factor that causes and predicts crimes. Finally, we integrate the rules extracted from a data mining task into a knowledge base system using PROLOG, which is used to make decisions.